Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season/Igor
11L.IGOR AoI:Yet Another Wave Wow... This could get serious. GFS has it forming upon contact with water. So does TAFB experimental. atomic7732 02:05, September 6, 2010 (UTC) :Jeff Masters on Wunderground mentioned this. Wonder how it will fare compared to 99L... --Patteroast 03:06, September 6, 2010 (UTC) ::This wave scares me, really, I mean, there is a good chance it will form, a good chance it will be a hurricane and a very decent shot at major hurricane status. I will watch out for Igor in the next 5 days. Darren23Edits|Mail 03:12, September 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::I want a fish please. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 03:33, September 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::One circulation appearing northwest of Cape Verde, and another just coming off the coast of Africa. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:45, September 6, 2010 (UTC) 91L.INVEST The circulation closer to the coast is now 91L. NHC has it at 40% risk. NHC also has the other center at 10%. --Patteroast 04:00, September 8, 2010 (UTC) :I know I said this for Gaston (the redevelopment of which is still not out of the question) but this one looks scary. Most of the models make this a significant hurricane and take it westward to just north of the Leeward Islands, maintaining a strong ridge. I've seen far to many 'I' storms become household names. Gaston was killed by dry air, the abundance of which has been the wild card this season. There is a huge mass of dry air in the upper levels over the tropical Atlantic that seems to be associated with a massive upper-level low. That low is forecast to lift out to the northeast over the next few days. I don't expect this ridiculous amount of dry air to stick around for very long. I don't expect our ridiculous amount of good luck to stick around much longer either. Nature keeps shooting at us and I get the feeling that sooner or later, she's gonna find her mark. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury ''Sky''][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury ''Fury''] 05:52, September 8, 2010 (UTC) ::NHC no longer notes the western bit as being separate. 91L is at 70% risk. --Patteroast 12:32, September 8, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Igor Whoa! Went to check up on 91L and found Igor. Still in the vicinity of Cape Verde and already a storm... yikes. --Patteroast 15:59, September 8, 2010 (UTC) :This one looks really scary. It could run into some problems if that upper level dry air doesn't move out. However, most of the global models forecast an upper level anticyclone to form over the system toward the end of the period. If that happens, this could get ugly really fast. I wouldn't count on that ridge to weaken enough to turn Igor out to sea. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury ''Sky''][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury ''Fury''] 17:54, September 8, 2010 (UTC) : :It's '''way too early to tell; this is exactly what Earl looked like, just formed a little farther west. However, Igor is not grabbing my attention... yet. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:50, September 8, 2010 (UTC) :I think Igor will take a slightly more northeasterly track than Earl, sorta like Bill 09. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 22:45, September 8, 2010 (UTC) ::It's only September and we have what last year ended with... My prediction is feasible. VERY feasible. atomic7732 23:08, September 8, 2010 (UTC) :I still say it's too soon to tell what Igor will do, but if I wait a week and come back, things could be very different, or it could just turn out to sea like Bill did. And Darren, the ACE of this year is just about 8 below 2007 as of now. You were right on the prediction you made for the ACE; 2010 will be hyperactive. However, numbers might not correspond. 1893 wasn't extremely active(though back in the 1800's, 13 storms was probrably exeptional), but the ACE of that year is in the top 10, largely due to the Charelston and Sea Islands hurricanes. Also, Igor is only heading west at 6 mph... I have a feeling that if that ridge stays strong, it could be a long-lived storm with an exeptionally high ACE. Ryan1000 23:46, September 8, 2010 (UTC) ::Huh? Igor is getting me scratching my head right now. Since when do storms stall off of Cape Verde? This isn't quite what Fred did, but Igor just doesn't want to move. Can anyone explain this? This storm is downright weird to me. Ryan1000 11:11, September 9, 2010 (UTC) :::Igor appears to be weakening and drifting north, but the ridge to its north will keep it from doing so. Maybe the steering currents in this area are very weak. GFS turns it out to sea and brushes it off Newfoundland, but at cat. 2 predicted in 5 days, you never know.2007Astro'sHurricane 11:58, September 9, 2010 (UTC) ::::The scenario being portrayed by the GFS right now is really quite terrifying. Not only does it show Igor becoming a strong hurricane, it also shows another wave coming in behind it out of nowhere and just exploding. Meanwhile, it moves 92L NW through the Caribbean as a well-organized tropical storm ("Julia") headed for the Gulf of Mexico. And near the end of the week, it develops yet another storm off Africa. At the end, you can see the predicted trough eroding the ridge ahead of Igor and a new high pressure system moving off the east coast. This pattern would recurve Igor away from land. If this happened, it would appear likely that the new ridge would strengthen in the wake of Igor and force the hypothetical hurricane behind it ("Karl") westward, very possibly right into the Carolinas. And who knows what a hypothetical "Julia" would do once it cleared the Yucatan. All the models I have access to develop something substantial behind Igor in 60-72 hrs. Most make it just as big as Igor. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury ''Sky''][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury ''Fury''] 20:05, September 9, 2010 (UTC) :::What you're predicting is way to far out to be certain, but it is not a good thing to see. Also, Igor is just not moving. If the steering currents remain weak, it will just sit over the Cape Verdes and soak them up in several inches, possibly feet, of rain. I don't know if it'll pull a Beryl, but I have to wait to be sure. That's all I can say for now.Ryan1000 21:18, September 9, 2010 (UTC) ::::I never said anything was certain. All I said was that the model forecasts look pretty scary right now. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury ''Sky''][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury ''Fury''] 22:19, September 9, 2010 (UTC) :::::This storm is trending west after stalling, but down to a TD. Large burst of convection, likely to eventually become a major, and active Cape Verde Season continues. GFS model actually creates up to Nicole by September 25. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:41, September 9, 2010 (UTC) ::::: :::::I saw this coming. Epic fail. Igor, just as did your epic fail brother Gaston, you failed us. Since when do storms fail over Cape Verde? atomic7732 00:25, September 10, 2010 (UTC) :Yeah, that's not really helpful at all. The forecast still brings Igor to hurricane strength. --Patteroast 01:54, September 10, 2010 (UTC) ::Gaston's remnants were partly destroyed by land interaction with Puerto Rico, Hispanola and Jamaica, but it appears Cape Verde storms this year are prone to weakening or dissapating in the southeastern Main Development Region. In fact, Alex would have been a long-lived, Cape Verde-type hurricane had it been classified as a TD on June 14 when it formed. If Igor stays weak it could impact land, but it looks like it'll most likely head out to sea. 2007Astro'sHurricane 11:54, September 10, 2010 (UTC) :::Igor's back up to tropical storm strength. --Patteroast 23:23, September 10, 2010 (UTC) ::Hmmm... Igor is much better organized on the sattelite imagery right now. If Igor slows down like it did by the Cape Verdes earlier, then it might miss the same trough that recurved Earl, and hit the U.S. Stay tuned. Igor is showing signs of exploding in intensity, and this may not look so good... Ryan1000 02:08, September 11, 2010 (UTC) :::I actually think Igor has a better chance of missing the East coast than Earl. The storm, If I'm forecasting it correctly, it should miss the Leewards and maybe on a more Danielle-type path. I seriously think this storm would be a fish, although since the models have slightly shifted south, this is a low-confidence forecast. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 02:26, September 11, 2010 (UTC) ::::The latest advisory has Igor near hurricane strength and strengthening. --Patteroast 08:43, September 11, 2010 (UTC) :::::Very close to a hurricane now, and it's had a well-defined eye for several hours. Quite a large storm, could become yet another cat. 4, and has a chance of affecting the Leewards or Canadian Maritimes. Unlikely to impact the US significantly unless it pulls an Ike, which by the way is a historical analog along with the 1938 Long Island express. Most models take it out to sea. This could become the strongest hurricane of the season. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:14, September 11, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::NHC has upped their forecast to a Cat 4, although it should be moving NW by then, missing the Leewards. Darren23Edits|Mail 20:52, September 11, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Igor Upgraded. --Patteroast 05:46, September 12, 2010 (UTC) :It doesn't seem so likely as Igor will hit the east coast as of now, but Bemuda may have to watch out 4-5 days from now. I'm expecting Igor to go on a Bill-like track, however; missing Bermuda to the west and the U.S. to the east, as well as impacting Atlantic Canada as a category one storm or so. Still, this storm is way far out. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 13:21, September 12, 2010 (UTC) ::Possibility of becoming a category 5, hitting Bermuda. Some waters in its path cooled by Earl but warmed by constant outflow from the Caribbean and Gulf Stream. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:33, September 12, 2010 (UTC) :::A cat. 2 right now, but could do a 20-mb drop during rapid intensification and be a cat. 3 or 4 at the next advisory. The storm seems to be shedding some of its feeder bands and its outer layers are contracting.. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:44, September 12, 2010 (UTC) Major Hurricane Igor Boom category 4! 20 mb drop in 3 hours. It's exploding, I think. Also, Igor looks very annular. No trace of a forming outer eyewall. atomic7732 18:37, September 12, 2010 (UTC) :WHOA!!! Igor just exploded in the last few hours! At the rate Igor is going, it could easily continue to explode in intensity and possibly become a category 5 monster! I don't know if the east coast will be hit, but Bermuda better watch out, this one could be heading straight for the island! I'm pretty stunned. This thing went from a category 1 to 4 in only 6 hours! This thing is so awesome to view on the sattelites, but it still could threaten land. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 19:28, September 12, 2010 (UTC) ::The satellite images are just SCREAMING annular hurricane. It's got all the necessary conditions. This could become stronger than Isabel 2003, and it doesn't have to go far to beat Earl. It's already at 935 mb, 130 kts. It has a full disk of convection surrounding the eye. A category five is in the forecast, and it could remain that intensity, but could lose annular status when it hits 29C+ waters. Isabel didn't become annular until it approached the longitude of Barbados. This could be a big problem, whether a cat. 5 giving off rip tides for the US, a cat. 4 hitting Bermuda, or a cat. 3 hitting Newfoundland. A lot of us predicted this name to be a very strong hurricane. Looks like that prediction is coming true. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:10, September 13, 2010 (UTC) :::Igor's forecast now brings it to category five! --Patteroast 03:05, September 13, 2010 (UTC) ::::Igor!! Holy sh!t! Wow! 150 mph and counting. It's now forecast to become a Cat. 5 briefly and that wouldn't surprise me at all. This is an incredible hurricane. An ERC will likely put an end to the party before too long but who knows how strong Igor'll be by that time. It's not gonna stop strengthening until that happens. Looking at the track, Bermuda better be paying attention because it could get awfully close by about Saturday night/Sunday morning. Astro, for the record, not every hurricane with a large eye and a smooth, circular shape is an annular hurricane. An annular hurricane is more like Epsilon or Ophelia where the eye is larger than the CDO, and not even all of those are annular. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 03:13, September 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::There is no doubt Igor was annular. There was never an outer eyewall, and it looked perfect. Annulars are circular at weaker intensities, normally the stronger the more symmetric, but you can't beat an annular at symmetric. It definitely looks like Igor dropped annular characteristics though. atomic7732 13:59, September 13, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Wow, Igor looks even better. The presentation both on visible and IR has noticably improved. Igor is probably on the verge of Category 5 strength, 135-140 knots. If this trend continues, I would be surprised if NHC doesn't bump up the intensity just a bit. However, I don't think it'll be long before an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Less than 12 hours. If Igor reaches Cat 5 strength, it will likely be within the next 3-4 hours. Take a picture, Igor won't stay there long. If it gets to 140 knots, it'll be the first Cat 5 in the Atlantic in three years. God, I love this! This is awesome! Wow, what a storm! -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 17:47, September 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::Whoowee! Igor is an epic win right now. Perfect cloud tops, an annular hurricane, and, unfortunately, heading for Bermuda possibly, as at least a category 3. Also, Eric, since Igor is an annular hurricane, even if it does undergo an eyewall cycle, it probrably won't weaken so much. Isabel had to undergo two eyewall cycles to drop from category 5 to category 4. If Igor continues to blow and not undergo an eyewall cycle, it will most likely reach category 5 very soon. Also, if it does hit cat. 5, it will be the first category 5 to miss land directly since Cleo in 1958. Ryan1000 21:13, September 13, 2010 (UTC) ::::::I still think you guys are misinterpriting the definition of 'annular hurricane' but I agree that, given the conditions and superb structure of the hurricane, when it does undergo an ERC, it may not weaken much or it may quickly reorganize. As of the latest microwave imagery (about five hours ago), there is no sign of an eyewall cycle, although I still think one is likely within the next 12 hours. The eyewall has been able to sustain itself at 130 knots for 18 straight hours and it doesn't appear to be slowing down. I'm amazed it's not stronger. Cloud tops have warmed a bit since that burst at around noon. It's possible that the shear size of the hurricane is slowing further strengthening. The microwave imagery does make Igor look much less impressive than it does on the IR. This is Igor during the burst earlier today. This is a Category 5. See the difference? Now that takes nothing away from Igor, it's still an incredible hurricane, but it's not a Category 5. Now, if we were going to have a Cat 5, this would be the place you'd want to have it: out over open water and no threat to land. I will say that conditions in the Caribbean are pretty much ideal right now and probably would support a powerful hurricane if one headed there. Proximity to land has precluded 92L from becoming a significant Caribbean hurricane. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 23:04, September 13, 2010 (UTC) :::::Well, maybe not a perfect annular storm, but one nontheless. Also, Eric, Igor is weakening a bit, now at 140 mph and 937 mbars. However, as I said, that isn't so much, and once this cyle is over, it has a chance for category 5 again. It may not certainly happen, but no matter what, Bermuda must watch out for Igor about 4 days from now. Ryan1000 03:19, September 14, 2010 (UTC) ::::::This could easily become another Fabian, as it's predited to track just west of Bermuda as a cat. 3. However the island should be more prepared than in 2003, though we have warmer waters, good outflow and a very large storm easily the size of the entire Gulf. It could even become an annular hurricane again while approaching Bermuda, as it reaches waters just cooler than 29C, but currently it has lost that distinction while it was previously marginally annular. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:11, September 14, 2010 (UTC) :::::: ::::::I wouldn't rule out Cat. 5 yet. Look at Igor now! It's grown even larger and is strengthening. The official forecast now brings it up to 130 knots, but with recent satellite estimates at 127, 133, and 127, I think it's already there. And with the diurnal maximum coming up, Igor may just pull it off. I will say, Igor may be the most visually spectacular Atlantic hurricane since Isabel. Reminds me a bit of his predecessor. Bermuda, the stronger Igor gets, the stronger it's likely to be when it gets to you. Preparations begin NOW! -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 02:37, September 15, 2010 (UTC) :135!! Igor is a strike away! -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 02:46, September 15, 2010 (UTC) ::Wow indeed. I never saw this coming. If we have just two more category 4 storms, we will shatter 2005's and 1999's record. Julia is the strongest hurricane recorded east of 35 degrees west, and Igor could pull another Fabian. And this year might just be only the second season on record with two category 4's active in the open Atlantic ocean at the same time. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 10:48, September 15, 2010 (UTC) :::Hmmm... Igor has dropped down to 135 mph since it had that brief strife for category 5 earlier today; I just think it's just undergoing another ERC. However, Igor is downright enormus; it has one of the largest gale diameters of any Atlantic storm on record. The forecast brings it right by Bermuda as a 100 mph storm or so, but because it is an Ike-size storm, the island could easily be swamped by this monster-- under up to a 10-foot storm surge. It is forecast to restrengthen when this ERC is finished, but the shallow island is very vulnerable to storm surge from hurricanes. Right now it doesn't matter how strong it is(category 2 or up); the size of Igor will overpower all oposition. Bermuda is vulnerable, and they must get ready. NOW. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:05, September 15, 2010 (UTC) ::::The darned thing looks like Wilma! atomic7732 23:05, September 15, 2010 (UTC) :::Uh oh. that ERC is just about wraped up, and when it does end in 3 or 6 hours, Igor will restrengthen, possibly to a chance for category 5 again, or category 5 all in all. The initial forecast calls for Igor to head right toward Bermuda. A slight 10 miles to the east or west won't save Bermuda from a slamming from this storm. It is forecast to pass by or over the island as a category 2, but the size of Ike. This thing could drown Bermuda if it stays this f**king massive, even though it might not be a major hurricane when it gets there. Keep your eyes out. This could be very bad. Ryan1000 00:34, September 16, 2010 (UTC) ::::Eye is shrinking, but the storm is getting bigger. It could weaken to a cat. 2, or it could stall, expand, then EWRC into an annular hurricane. This is only the second time ever we've had two cat. 4s in the Atlantic simultaneously. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:55, September 16, 2010 (UTC) :::There are still no watches or warnings up for Bermuda from this monster. It's heading northwest, but it's starting to intensify again. It's now at 140 and 934. Also, it is the 10th largest Atlantic hurricane on record at this point, it's wind field goes out 480 miles. Also, this storm is still forecast to pass right by Bermuda. If that happens, the island will get a direct hit from the eyewall at this storm's maximum power. The Bermuda international airport should be getting busy right about now! Ryan1000 20:11, September 16, 2010 (UTC) ::::Down to a cat. 3 now, still EWRC'ing but expected to strengthen and it's still expanding like a monster. Maybe it's possible it could stall as the trough moves off and the storm starts to turn. Bermuda needs to watch this carefully, as the waters are actually warmer than when Fabian hit. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:42, September 16, 2010 (UTC) :::::It's looking awfully grim for Bermuda right now. The NHC advisory point for 8pm Sunday puts Igor almost directly over the island as a major hurricane. Bermuda's last big hit was Fabian back in 2003 (remember, Fabian was retired for the damage it did on the island). This could easily be as bad or worse. NHC is counting on that shear getting to Igor before it gets to Bermuda. Let's hope they're right, because right now, Igor controls his own destiny. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 06:39, September 17, 2010 (UTC) ::::: :::::And... it's back down to a category 2 hurricane, same as where Alex peaked. It has been fighting shear from a trough north of the storm, but it seems that shear is abating. It could be re-upgraded later tonight. Also, Igor is picking up some speed, and it is still forecast to hit Bermuda as a very strong and large hurricane. Bermuda must be evacuated. NOW. Ryan1000 21:04, September 17, 2010 (UTC) :Forecast still points to Igor going back up to category three, but dropping back down to probably a two by the time it gets to Bermuda. Igor is a BIG storm. Even though it's moving fast, tropical storm winds will probably last a long time on Bermuda. --Patteroast 13:13, September 18, 2010 (UTC) : ::No, it won't reach category 3 again. However, it is forecast to turn north soon, and Igor's enormus size could hit Bermuda with a 12-15 foot storm surge! This thing will not be pretty for Bermuda. It is less than 2 days from a possible landfall, or direct hit at least. However, Igor is under too much shear to reach category 3 again. Igor may only have 100 mph winds, but because it is the third largest Atlantic hurricane on record, almost twice the size of Katrina, it could cause tremendous damage. Stay tuned... Ryan1000 22:58, September 18, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Igor (2nd time) ::Huh, Igor now has weakened into a category 1 hurricane. It's currently at 85 mph, and it's still fighting more shear. Igor may not turn out to be as bad as I was fearing, but it still has hurricane winds 90 miles out, and TS winds 345 miles out. It wouldn't surprise me if hurricane winds are already being felt on Bermuda, but even with just 85 mph winds, it is still possible that a 10 foot storm surge could be felt on the small island due to Igor's massive size. Stay tuned. We aren't out of the woods yet with this one. It could still be VERY destructive.Ryan1000 12:23, September 19, 2010 (UTC) :::The southern part of this storm is eroding, but it's set to pass just west of Bermuda, giving it the storm's strongest winds. Storm surge, waves and rainfall should be the greatest concern, but since Bermuda is such a small island the storm surge probably won't build up. Hurricane-force wind gusts have hit Bermuda since last night. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:47, September 19, 2010 (UTC) ::It appears Igor didn't turn out to be as bad as I was fearing. The storm made a slight 10 mile or so jog to the west before making it's way into Bermuda, sparing the island from a diret slamming, and the longest duration of winds. Also, Igor weakened down to a category 1 storm before making a direct hit. Had Igor held on to category 2 strength before hitting Bermuda, and not made that last-minute left-hand turn, Bermuda could have fared a lot worse than it did. The island got lucky with Igor. It could have been much worse. Ryan1000 22:01, September 19, 2010 (UTC) :::Still, the tropical storm winds have only been gone for a short while in Bermuda. Tropical storm warnings up for Newfoundland, but it'll probably be extratropical by then. --Patteroast 20:32, September 20, 2010 (UTC) :::Wikipedia's been saying Igor's the biggest hurricane ever, and it's been saying that for the last two days so I guess it's not vandalism. Is this for real? If so, that's pretty crazy, I imagined the biggest hurricane ever would be a Category 5 or something at its centre. This thing better not come anywhere near us in the UK. 86.148.171.189 21:10, September 20, 2010 (UTC) ::::That was apparently a mistake, and it's now the eighth largest hurricane ever. Igor is expected to hit Greenland apparently. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:13, September 21, 2010 (UTC) ::::Not so more. It shifted to the left and might dissipate somewhere over Nunavut, however surely to be posttropical at that time. --88.102.101.245 12:01, September 21, 2010 (UTC) ::::